Garry’s latest FOREcast
Issued: 8 November 2018, 1800
The summer of 2018 was historic for its dry and warm weather, and weather patterns this autumn have also been relatively dry. On a positive note, this has meant the golf course has remained in excellent condition late into the playing season.
However, a recent trip to Ladybower reservoir revealed the toll the dry weather has taken on our water supplies. Ruins of the old Derwent village are visible with water levels remarkably low. The reservoir is currently only at 35% of its capacity. Such scenes are not unprecedented, but highlight the need for rain this winter.
If we were to have a drier than average winter and spring, we could have major problems with water shortages next summer.
Naturally, the British weather does a great job of balancing things out. Wet weather will return at some point to bring water levels back to normal, but there could be some difficulties ahead before we get there.
Back to the here and now, the outlook is relatively benign for the week ahead. Southerly winds will dominate, meaning temperatures will be generally mild, and frost unlikely. There will be some rain from time to time, but it won’t be particularly wet in our part of the world.
Much of Friday will be dry, with just the odd shower, most likely in the morning. A spell of persistent rain will come through on Friday evening, heavy for a time, giving 7 to 10mm.
Rain will have cleared before dawn on Saturday. Over the weekend, mainly dry conditions will prevail, although there’s a chance of showery rain now and again, which may be frequent over an hour or so, but typically amounting to very little. Fairly cloudy, with some sun breaking through.
Throughout the weekend, we will have a moderate breeze from the south around 10 to 15mph. Top daytime temperatures 9 or 10C, and around 5C overnight.
For next week, temperatures will stay fairly mild night and day, although it will be often quite dull. Some murkier days may result in extensive fog over the Peak District hills, and patchy rain or drizzle from time to time.
Beyond mid-November, high pressure is expected to be nearby, and fairly dry conditions are likely. Temperatures may become cooler into the final third of the month, as winds try to switch around to the east.