Garry’s Latest Forecast

Something a bit better

A drier weather pattern is developing, but will a ‘beast from the east’ hit before February is finished?
Garry’s forecast for Buxton
Issued Wednesday 14th February, 18:00
Thursday: Chance of snow flurries
A few brief showers coming in from the west, with snow or hail at times, but amounts small. Occasional sunshine. West to southwesterly winds, 10 to 20mph. Max temperature 5C. falling to 0C overnight, with a slight frost by Friday morning.
Friday: Generally dry
A quiet day with variable cloud and some sunshine. Chance of brief spots of rain, but the day should remain largely dry. Light south to southwesterly wind, 10mph or less. Reaching 5 or 6C by early afternoon. Staying around 3C into the night, with cloudy skies and a little rain coming through, but amounts small.
Saturday: A little rain possible
A fairly cloudy day, with a risk of patchy rain or drizzle from time to time, but should amount to very little. Most of the day should stay dry. Some brighter skies and a little sun. Light southwesterlies around 10mph. Max 5 or 6C by day, and only a slight fall to 4C into the night.
Sunday: Rather dull and damp
A little more complicated, as fronts try and come in from the west, which may give rain or drizzle for a few hours, but again this may not amount to much. Rather dull, with low cloud across the hills. A west or southwesterly wind around 10mph. Max 6C.
Outlook for next week (19th-25th February):   Quiet, mainly dry, some frost
A lot of dry weather, as high pressure becomes established around the British Isles. Fairly benign conditions, with some low cloud and murk. Most likely little if any rain or snow throughout the week. Temperatures will stay on the cool side, but not particularly cold. Around 5 to 7C by day, and some frost overnight, with lows often close to 0C, perhaps sub-zero some nights, but will depend on cloud cover. A chance that temperatures may fall through the week as winds turn easterly.
Further ahead (into March): Winter not over, but looking drier
As mentioned last week, a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ event has now occurred over the North Pole. Temperatures in the stratosphere up to 30 miles above the Earth’s surface have warmed around 40 degrees Celsius in just a couple of days, up to minus 30C (this ‘warming’ being just a relative term!).
This natural periodic phenomenon is the trigger for a change in our weather patterns. This means an end to the recent westerly dominated set-up, in favour of ‘blocked’ patterns, where winds more commonly come from the east. This does mean that we are at risk of much colder developing later in February, which may linger into March.
The good news is that rainfall amounts should become lower, but that doesn’t rule out some snowfalls which may cause problems in the weeks ahead!
Thanks again Garry!
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