Garry’s Latest FOREcast

The ‘false spring’ is over – winter is making a comeback!

Foreword:
Congratulations to Garry for his great win yesterday on the very last day of the warm sunshine and thanks also to Garry for his ongoing commitment to providing his insightful weekly personalised FOREcasts for Cavendish members.

The glorious weather this past week certainly helped my golf game. Wasn’t it grand to bask in the warm sunshine!

There’s a lot of talk about the temperature records which have been broken, and why we should be ‘worried’ about this being evidence of a changing climate. As a professional meteorologist, I’m fully versed in the science behind global warming, but also realistic about the meteorology behind our recent heatwave. As mentioned last week, the weather patterns have been absolutely optimum for this spell of winter warmth and it isn’t completely unprecedented.

However, weather history also tells us that these early warm spells are very often followed by the return of ‘proper’ winter. A dig into the history books reveals that back when Alister MacKenzie was just a young man in 1891, temperatures reached 19C in parts of England and Wales at the end of February. 10 days later one of the worst blizzards in British history hit the south of England!

We may not see that, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see snow in Buxton during the week ahead. At the very least, the weather pattern now looks cool and unsettled for the foreseeable future.

Friday will be a decent day, barring a few early brief showers. Rain will then move in after dark to give 3 to 5mm or so overnight, more or less clearing before dawn on Saturday.

Saturday:  Blustery, cool, rain sets in through afternoon

The majority of Saturday’s golfers may well escape substantially dry. A few residual showers left from overnight are possible but shouldn’t come to much. However, as the afternoon wears on, rain will develop again from the west, and become persistent into the early evening, to give about 5 to 8mm in total. Compared to past days it will feel chilly, rising from 6C at first to 9 or 10C in the middle of the day. Fresh southwesterly winds in the range 15 to 25mph will make things tricky too!

Sunday:  Cool, risk of rain returning

There’s a degree of uncertainty about the northward progress of the next batch of rain, but it looks likely to turn wetter again as the day unfolds, after a largely dry start. Cool again, with a starting minima of about 3C, only rising to 6 or 7C, with again the risk of a gusty wind.

Next Week:  Chilly and changeable

Late Sunday into Monday provides some ‘interest’, as weather fronts track northeastwards across England and try to engage with colder air to the north. Much could yet change, but here lies some scope for hill snow over the Peak District into Monday morning.

The rest of the week will vary from day to day, but it will be generally cool, with precipitation frequent, at times of a wintry flavour. Rainfall totals of 30 to 40mm+ over 5-7 days are likely. Temperatures will be more like 5 to 7C by day, and a risk of frost and ice overnight. It could be some time before we return to genuine warmth… 

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