September has more or less lived up to expectations – after an August which was at times truly awful, it often follows that September gives us a good spell, and we managed that through mid-month at least. Now we’ve very much taken a step in the direction of autumn, and changeable weather is very much back in charge.
Heavy bursts of rain during Friday will have given things a good soaking, and there’s more rain to come heading into Saturday. A west by northwesterly breeze will be strong making it feel rather cool. Rain will be on and off much of Saturday daytime, and as showers cluster together as they run in from the Irish Sea, sadly the rain may be much more ‘on’ than ‘off’ over many hours. At least 15-20mm is likely to have fallen over 24-36 hours to the end of Saturday.
There’s more to come overnight into Sunday, with another frontal wave coming in from the southwest. This intensifies the rain again, with heavy falls prolonged over many hours, and another 20-30mm+ plausible over 24 hours.
A window of drier weather late Sunday into Monday daytime will be followed by another batch of heavy rain crossing central-northern England late Monday into Tuesday, with again scope for 20mm+. A chance the worst of this may track further south across the Midlands.
There’s a longer window of dry weather expected through Wednesday-Thursday, with cool days and scope for frost overnight, with some valley fog too.
Toward next weekend, there’s a risk of further unsettled weather coming back in from the southwest, although with milder temperatures.
My expectation is that things become cool and quiet toward mid-month for a spell, then the full force of unsettled autumn weather returns heading into the final third of October.
Early winter thoughts suggest we get going with some chilly spells fairly early on in the season during November into December, but of course that is a long way off for now!