Garry’s latest FOREcast

Rain, rain, go away...

It’s been a classically dismal period of British summer weather, as a potent low pressure system has rotated across the country this week. Rainfall totals in the Peak District have topped 75mm (3 inches) since the weekend, turning our babbling brook into a raging torrent. We are not alone – most of the country is in a soggy state, with dramatic scenes of flash floods reported in the Yorkshire Dales on Tuesday.

General situation:

A slow-moving cyclonic situation that prevailed in midweek is moving out into the North Sea, and pressure builds a little for the rest of this week. Showers are still likely to form, but drier periods will be longer lived. Into the weekend, weather systems will start to encroach back in from the southwest. Less severe, but not ‘dry’. The outlook remains generally unsettled.

Thursday: Hit and miss afternoon downpours    

Residual rain from late Wednesday will finally fade to become light and patchy tonight and early Thursday – the morning largely dry. Mostly cloudy, only occasional sun.

By the middle of the day, an increasing risk of showers forming over the Peak/Pennines, which will form into local slow-moving bands, these very hit and miss locally. A fine margin between just small amounts of rain and sustained heavy or torrential bursts with thunder.

Wind N-NW 10-15mph. Max 19 to 21C; Min 11 to 13C.

Friday: More often dry, chance showers   

Dry overnight Thursday into Friday. A greater likelihood of staying substantially dry through the day. However, isolated showers remain possible, which during afternoon will be locally slow-moving. A little sun now and again. Wind E-NE 7-12mph. Max 18 to 20C; Min 10 to 12C.

Saturday-Sunday: Risk of rain now and again    

Much of the time it is likely to be dry. Patches of rain occasionally, and some heavier showers are possible. In general, rainfall totals should be less concerning overall. Need to watch how much rain develops during Sunday, a risk of some heavier falls forming later.

Wind SSE becoming SSW 10-15mph occasionally less. Max 19 to 21C; Min 11 to 13C.

Next week: Rain frequent, threat very wet well into August    

The message remains broadly unsettled. Fairly humid southwesterly winds will bring bursts of rain from time to time. A pattern which looks stubbornly persistent much of the week. Variations from day to day in who sees the worst of the showers. With a reasonable degree of confidence, the outlook well into August is unsettled, wetter than average, potentially very wet some days. No imminent heatwave or sign of dry, settled weather.

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