Garry’s latest FOREcast

General situation:

A very hot continental airmass currently over the British Isles will give way to much less hot, but still warm and fairly humid air over the next few days. Weather systems will become slow-moving, so confidence in the forecast is rather low. Whilst there will be periods of rain for the Peak District, the worst of the rain in the days ahead is due to be focused on northeast England. Although the week ahead looks fairly warm, the current heat is unlikely to return.

Friday: Cloudy, fairly humid, occasional rain    

Remnants of overnight thunderstorms are likely to leave low cloud and murk in the morning, with patchy rain or drizzle. Rain may come and go through the day, although for many hours should amount to very little if anything. A small risk of a lingering thundery burst, but very hit and miss. Into the night, a greater risk of steadier, perhaps thundery rain coming back up from the south, giving 4-8mm overnight. Wind S-SW 10-15mph, at times less. Max 22 to 24C.

Saturday: Cloudy, much of day may escape largely dry    

Any rain from the small hours is most likely to retreat to the east/northeast of the Peak District into the morning. The day is due to be generally cloudy, with occasional rain possible at times, but in general amounts should be small. However, late in the day, or into the night, heavier pulses of rain may well push back across Derbyshire from the southeast, but the extent of this is very uncertain. Winds variable or NW, 10-15mph. Max 21C; Min 13C.

Sunday: Greater risk of rain     

Much will depend on the progress of a slow-moving front, with this generally draped across the Pennines by Sunday. Cloudy overall. A chance of seeing just negligible rainfall all day in Buxton. However, there is scope for some heavy falls, giving 10-15mm, perhaps 20mm in the day. Wind variable or W-NW, 10mph or less, may become gusty. Max 20C; Min 12C.

Next week: A mixed week, not hot; risk unsettled later    

Confidence must be stressed as low. A general message of being often dry, but with bursts of rain possible, occasionally thundery in nature. Indications suggest things become more generally unsettled later in the week as pressure falls from the southwest, but this treated cautiously. Wind often light. Fairly humid. Max 18 to 23C; Min 11 to 14C.

Naturally with the short-term uncertainty, the longer range trends are difficult – thoughts favour a better spell returning in early August, but followed by a general deterioration into mid-month.

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